Travel Demand Forecast Model

The Regional Travel Demand Forecast Model is a tool to forecast traffic and travel in the Kansas City metro area. Its primary purpose is to support the development of the Metropolitan Transportation Plan. In addition, the model supports the evaluation of proposed roadway projects, helps evaluate potential impacts of proposed development projects and supports other studies of the region, subareas, corridors and other planning activities. The Missouri and Kansas departments of transportation (MoDOT and KDOT) use the travel model to support studies related to improvements on the state highway systems.

The travel model has been calibrated to reflect the base year of 2015 and contains future year data forecasting conditions in the years 2040 and 2050. It is an adaptation of the standard four-step modeling process. These four steps are:

1. Trip generation
2. Trip distribution
3. Mode choice
4. Traffic assignment

Each of the four steps addresses a question about travel behavior. Key inputs to the model include roadway and transit networks along with information about land use in the form of household and employment data. Changes to assumptions about transportation networks or land use data will result in different traffic and transit volume outputs.

The Travel Model Users Group provides a platform for travel demand forecast model users to exchange and deliberate on advancements, applications and research efforts within the transportation planning community.