The 2040 long-range forecast is the most detailed and accurate forecast MARC has produced for Greater Kansas City. Local governments in the region provided GIS data at the parcel level to help create the land-use and demographic spatial datasets that are critical to the forecast.
The process began with the compilation of base-year land-use data, collected from county appraisers' parcel data, to describe existing conditions at the beginning of the forecast period. For the 2040 forecast, the base year is 2000. This data tells us which areas of land are already developed, developable or protected from development.
Next, plans for future land use were compiled from all available city and county land-use and comprehensive plan maps.
Land-use types vary among local plans, so local land-use types were matched to a regional classification system of 'paint chips' that visually identify the full range of existing and planned land uses. A software tool called "Paint the Town" allows us to paint planned land-use changes for each decade. From the projected changes in land use, we can calculate the associated change in population, households and employment based on the attributes of each paint chip, which include density, persons per household, square feet per employee and vacancy rates.