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2040 Forecast

The 2040 Forecast provides the estimated number and distribution of population, households, and employment in the seven-county Kansas City region for the year 2040. The forecast is produced by MARC's Research Services staff and the Technical Forecast Committee — which includes planners from local governments and other organizations in the Kansas City region. The forecast is used to inform the long-range transportation planning process in order to incorporate future demand into transportation infrastructure planning.

The 2040 Forecast is an estimate of the land-use change most likely to occur in the Greater Kansas City area by 2040 given past trends, known demographic and economic shifts, and expected changes in federal, state and local government policy. The forecast assumes that some but not all aspirational growth and land use policies will be implemented by 2040. As a result, the forecast adopted in 2010 includes about 18 percent of the region’s growth in existing activity centers along corridors that have the potential to be served by transit.

Decline in the region's center is diminished but not eliminated in the 2040 forecast. About 102,000 acres of vacant land are consumed, which is 58 percent of what would have been consumed if historic trends continued. This results in a savings of about $2 billion in local infrastructure costs.

Forecast data and documents