Skycast X

Forecast Land-Use Change Model

When we combine the amount of growth that individual local governments include in their plans, the total exceeds the overall amount of growth the Kansas City area is likely to experience by 2040. The Technical Forecast Committee developed a land-use model to determine the probability of land-use change of each parcel in the region, and then estimate where the land-use change will occur by 2040.

What makes one area more likely to develop than another? Generally, places that are close to roads, served by sewers, and near growing areas with high-income households are more likely to develop than places that are far from services, amenities and activities.

The land-use change model analyzes conditions under which land-use change occurred in the past. Those conditions are projected into the future to create the development probability index, which assigns a probability of land-use change for each parcel in the region. The model uses logistic regression analysis to determine which of several criteria related to land use and development had a relationship to the location of development in the 1990s, and the strength of those relationships. MARC staff collected data on the location of development in the region from 1990 to 1999, plus 20 criteria related to development location selection for 1990 and 2000.

The probability of land-use change is separated into three kinds of land-use change:

  1. new development
  2. redevelopment
  3. decline

The probabilities of future land-use change calculated by the model provide an initial estimate of which parcels will develop, redevelop or decline within each decade or study period. The probabilities, and the parcels selected to change, may be affected by the locations of known development projects, as well as the decisions of cities and counties. The policies we put in place to adapt to current and future challenges will shape where people live and work for decades to come.

For each parcel selected to develop in a particular decade, the parcel is "painted" with a "paint chip" that has associated with it a density of people, households, and/or jobs expected to live and/or work there. The results of "painting the town" are then aggregated by transportation analysis zone (TAZ).